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Analysts pointed out that Chinese auto makers have strong sales and earnings in the first half of the year and it is expected that this momentum will continue in the second half of the year.
Analysts noted that some mild price-cutting activities in the Chinese auto market in the first half of the year did not repeat the fierce price war in 2004. It is expected that even if there is a price war in the second half of the year, it will perform relatively mildly, which means that the profitability of automobile manufacturers during the period will not be significantly deteriorated due to price reduction activities.
Su Guojian, head of China Research at Macquarie Securities, pointed out that the profitability of most auto makers in the Mainland this year has generally increased compared with the same period of last year. The profit rate has also remained stable or has improved. Strong sales growth led to an increase in auto makers' first-half revenue and earnings.
He expects the overall price cuts of the Chinese auto industry this year to be only 3-5%, and the fierce price war in 2004 will not repeat itself.
Other analysts also basically agreed with Su Guojian’s optimistic judgment on the price, sales volume and profitability of the car.
Kong Lei, a joint director of Fitch's Asia Pacific Enterprise Rating Department, said that the price pressures faced by auto makers have eased somewhat, and they are therefore able to achieve a relatively stable profit margin and thus increase profitability.
CSM Asia Automotive analyst Zhang Yu pointed out that sales of passenger vehicles in China increased by more than 40% in the first half of the year, which is a fairly strong growth figure. In the past two years, the prices of cars in the Mainland have fallen rapidly, while at the same time the income of residents has risen. It is believed that relatively stable prices in the second half will stimulate a considerable degree of demand growth.
Analysts also noted that domestic brands such as Geely, Chery and Brilliance are using their price advantage to start eroding the original market share of joint venture car manufacturers.
Zhang Yu is optimistic about the business prospects of these small car manufacturers. He said that the low-cost competition strategies adopted by most domestic manufacturers are effective and their earnings performance is quite good, with Chery and Brilliance being the most prominent.
In the first July, Chery’s sales volume was 159,564 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%. Geely auto sales volume was 117,841 units, an increase of 55.0% year-on-year; and Brilliance’s sales in the first half of the year were 92,200 units, an increase of 57.7% year-on-year.
However, analysts also pointed out that although the Chinese auto industry achieved satisfactory results in the first half of the year, if crude oil prices continue to rise, the risks they face are self-evident. This is because rising crude oil prices will drive up gasoline prices, which will not only increase production costs, but will also curb car demand.
Kong Lei of Fitch Asia Pacific anticipates that the consideration of gasoline costs will affect the sales of automobiles in the second half of the year, especially the sales of large-displacement vehicles. However, the government's policy of encouraging the sale of small-displacement cars will help the sales of the latter type of car.
Although international oil prices continue to remain high, the price of gasoline in the Chinese mainland has not been significantly raised so far. In March, the National Development and Reform Commission of China raised the ex-factory price of automobiles by 300 yuan per ton and diesel by 200 yuan. In May, the retail prices of gasoline, diesel and naphtha were raised by 500 yuan per ton. However, no adjustments have been made to the oil price since this year.
On the other hand, analysts expect that the prices of raw materials for automobile production, especially steel, will not rise significantly in the second half of the year.
Kong Lei pointed out that the increase in the price of raw materials in the first half of the year was not as large as originally expected, especially in steel. The price of the major varieties of steel has actually declined slightly during the period, which helps the mainland automakers to control costs.
He predicted that as long as there is no fierce price war, mainland car demand may achieve an annual growth rate of 10-15% in the second half of the year, resulting in sales of 4 million vehicles during the period.
According to the data provided by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first seven months, Chinese auto manufacturers sold a total of about 4 million automobiles, a year-on-year increase of 24.29%. In the same period, automobile production increased by 26.77% year-on-year to 4.13 million vehicles. In August, auto sales increased by 26.06% year-on-year to 528,100 units, including 37.80 million passenger cars, an increase of 29.21% year-on-year; sales of commercial vehicles were 150,100, a year-on-year increase of 18.78%; sales of passenger vehicles for the first eight months of the year 237 10,000 vehicles, an increase of 41% year-on-year.
In the first half of the year, the total net profit of the Chinese auto industry was 36.77 billion yuan, an increase of 59.58% year-on-year. In the first July, Volkswagen’s affiliate market share in China was 16%, ranking first; GM’s affiliate market share in China was followed by 11%.
According to the sales rankings in the first half of the year, Shanghai GM, Shanghai Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen separated the top 3, with sales of 183,900, 161,900 and 147,600 respectively; followed by Chery Automobile, Beijing Hyundai, FAW Court, FAW Xiali, Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Honda and Dongfeng Citroen have each sold more than 100,000 units in the first half of the year.
In accordance with the ranking of performance growth in the first half of the year, Dongfeng Motor and FAW Xiali performed the most spectacularly. The strong sales and cost reductions have made the above company's profitable progress.
Dongfeng Motor made a profit of 1.11 billion yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 69% year-on-year; during the same period, the profit of FAW Xiali increased 3 times year-on-year; Changan Automobile grew 48.2%.
In addition, US General Motors and its Shanghai subsidiary sold a total of 453,832 vehicles in the first half of the year, an increase of 47% year-on-year, of which Shanghai Automotive sales in the first half of the year increased 49.1% year-on-year to 201,901 units.
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Description of Glass French Press
Size : 0.35L/0.8L/1L
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MOQ : 2000 PCS
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Sample Time : 7~10 days
Lead Time :60 days after have the deposit
Payment: T/T ,L/C or others
Payment term: 30% deposit before production and 70 % balance against the copy B/L
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